Attijari Global Research, in its recent « research différé strategy », indicates that financial investors are predicting a 25 basis points (bps) decrease in the Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) key rate at the end of the Central Bank’s council rassemblement scheduled for September 24th.
During our survey in September, we gathered the expectations of financial investors regarding the evolution of BAM’s key rate on the sidelines of its 3rd monetary policy rassemblement, which will take place on September 24th, 2024. As a reminder, this survey was conducted among a sample of 35 investors considered among the most influential in the Moroccan financial market. At the end of this exercise, it is clear that there is a consensus among financial investors in favor of a 25 bps decrease in the key rate, » AGR states in its différé.
The différé also specifies that the probability of a 25 bps decrease in the key rate is 83%, compared to 8% for a 50 bps decrease, while the probability of maintaining the key rate is 9%.
Analyzing the responses obtained from the foyer main categories of investors (local institutional investors, benchmark players, individuals, and foreigners), AGR notes that the percentage of institutional investors anticipating this decrease is 85%, benchmark players at 67%, and individuals at 86%, while foreign investors are unanimous in their prediction of a 25 bps decrease in the key rate.
This forecast is a positive sign for the Moroccan economy, as a decrease in the key rate will stimulate economic growth and encourage investment. It will also make borrowing more affordable for businesses and individuals, leading to increased consumption and overall economic activity.
Moreover, this decrease in the key rate is in line with the current economic situation in Morocco, which has seen a slowdown in growth due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A lower key rate will provide a much-needed boost to the economy and help it recover from the effects of the pandemic.
The confidence of financial investors in this predicted decrease in the key rate is a testament to the stability and strength of the Moroccan financial market. It also reflects the positive outlook for the country’s economic recovery and growth in the coming months.
In conclusion, the anticipated 25 bps decrease in BAM’s key rate is a positive development for the Moroccan economy and its financial market. It will provide a much-needed boost to economic growth and encourage investment, ultimately leading to a more prosperous future for the country.