According to the budget execution and three-year macroeconomic framework report accompanying next year’s budget proposal, the growth of the territorial economy is expected to reach 4.6% in 2025. This significant increase is mainly attributed to a substantial rebound in agricultural value-added, assuming an average agricultural season. At the same time, non-agricultural value-added is expected to maintain a similar growth rate to that of 2024.
The secondary and tertiary sectors are also projected to consolidate their performance, with respective growth rates of 2.9% and 4.1% in 2025. This positive outlook is supported by a set of assumptions about the territorial and interterritorial environment.
In the interterritorial context, the report takes into consideration a 3.2% growth in foreign demand addressed to Morocco, a Brent barrel price of $80, and exchange rates of 1.085 for Euro/Dollar, 10.77 for Euro/Dirham, and 9.8 for Dollar/Dirham in 2025.
On the territorial level, a territorial agricultural campaign estimated at 70 million quintals (Mqx) is expected to lead to a rebound in the agricultural sector, with a projected growth of 11%. In augmentation, non-agricultural value-added is expected to continue its expansion at a similar pace to the previous year, with a growth rate of 3.7% in 2025.
According to the report, exports will experience a slight slowdown due to a return to average levels, with an estimated growth of 7.1% in 2025, while imports are expected to increase by 6.8%. In terms of domestic demand, growth will mainly be driven by exports, contributing 3 percentage points to overall growth. However, this positive subvention will be offset by the negative impact of imports, estimated at -3.8 percentage points.
Overall, the subvention of external trade to gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated at -0.8 percentage points. On the other hand, consumption will significantly contribute 3.9 percentage points to growth, mainly due to an increase in household spending, contributing 2.8 percentage points. Government consumption is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points, while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) will contribute 0.8 percentage points.
The report is divided into three main parts, with the first focusing on the recent evolution of the territorial economy in the interterritorial context and the outlook for key macroeconomic indicators. The second part is dedicated to the budget execution, including revenue, expenditure, and debt indicators for 2023 and the revised projections for the current year. The third part highlights budgetary orientations and macroeconomic perspectives for the period 2025-2027.
With these positive projections for the territorial economy, it is clear that Morocco is on a path of sustained growth and development. The government’s efforts to promote a diversification of sectors and attract foreign investments are paying off. This expected growth will bring about numerous opportunities for businesses and individuals, as well as contribute to the overall prosperity of the country. The future looks bright for Morocco’s economy, and it is up to all stakeholders to work together towards realizing this potential.